October 2003 Keeping Ken  Keeping Ken Value Guide  Keeping Ken Value Guide Secondary Market Report Archive  Value Graph Archives

Special Secondary Market Report 10-30-2003

It's been a year since the last update.  2002 proved to be a tough one for secondary market values.  Both updates (Keeping Ken Value Guide March 2002 and Keeping Ken Value Guide October 2002) proved that it was a bear market for collectibles in 2002.  The October 2002 update explored the effect that investment and mass-producing/discounting plays into secondary market values.  This update reflects more declines as well, but with the possibilities of a more positive long term recovery.  The decreases we see with this update reflect more on the economy, not business performance.  The retail industry in 2003 is beginning to make comebacks with slight positive comps.  At the time of publication, Mattel reported third quarter, net sales were $1.70 billion, up 2 percent compared to last year's third quarter net sales of $1.67 billion. On a regional basis, domestic third quarter gross sales decreased by 4 percent while international third quarter gross sales increased by 16 percent, which included a benefit from changes in currency exchange rates of 7 percentage points. "As it relates to the top line, we continue to face a challenging retail environment domestically, but I am encouraged as momentum is beginning to build at retail in the U.S. and internationally," said Robert A. Eckert, chairman and chief executive officer of Mattel. "We continue to focus on further developing a culture of continuous improvement in all areas of the business, including reducing costs and strengthening the balance sheet."  Worldwide gross sales for the Mattel Brands business unit were $1.16 billion, a 3 percent increase. Worldwide gross sales for the Barbie® brand were up 8 percent with double-digit international gains partially offset by flat domestic sales. Worldwide gross sales for Other Girls Brands were up 15 percent for the quarter with strong sales of the Flavas™, Polly Pocket!® and ello™ brands which more than offset sales declines in the What's Her Face!™ and Diva Starz™ brands.  

It's predictable that the end of Summer months are usually not strong for collectible values, and again, a reminder to please consider that the October update usually reflects this.  More importantly, the declines in October usually rebound at November end.

October 2003 Value Overview

Most Ken® dolls decreased in value, and again were leveled by minor increases in the Vintage era, which command higher prices, as well as more recent play line Ken® dolls.  As requested by readers, I have now expanded to 5 the Top Increases This Update/Cumulative and Top Decreases This Update/ Cumulative in the graph below.

VINTAGE Era Ken®

The Vintage category did the best when comparing to Barbie® Vintage Era categories for true values and investment potential. At $258, the very first Ken doll, Flock Hair Ken (brunette or blonde) had the brightest long-term investment potential in the Vintage category for a second time.  With an increase of 2.7% and +26.9% overall it gained on it's positive comp of +3.8 and is +23.5 overall in the last update.  On the other hand, the rarer brownette version ($270) posted another decrease of -6.9/-20.0 overall this update, following a -6.5/-14.1 overall decrease in the last update.  After posting a decrease of -5.6, +6.8 overall in the last update, Painted Hair Ken brunette or blonde ($144) leveled back with a +5.9 increase, bringing it's value to +13.1 overall.  I predict that Painted Hair Ken dolls will become more important in the Vintage category.  I think they have been taken for granted long enough.  Collector's still love Bendable Leg Ken  ($381) which also leveled in value with a +3.5 increase, after a -3.7 decrease last time.  Bendable Leg Ken® improved overall to +23.0, compared to a +18.8 last update.   The Painted Hair Shortie Ken ($156) stayed the same for a third time because no value was found in NRFB condition.  It is -1.0 overall. Wildcards in the Vintage category, are  Dressed Box Ken dolls, which either turn up at the right or wrong time on eBay.  This is the hardest category of dolls to get secondary market prices for.  A fair amount of Dressed Box Ken dolls remained at the same value, mostly because there was no change in dealer price lists who have these rare dolls.  Most of the value changes in this update reflect eBay auctions where the dolls affected were sold.  Of the Dressed Box Ken dolls that did see activity, the hardest hit was the most expensive version available, Dressed Box Ken Arabian Nights #0774 ($620) -10.7 and -24.7 overall.  Dressed Box Ken Touchdown #799 ($294) took another -5.2 decrease to -21.6 overall.  Positive comps this update helped this category look a little better.  Dressed Box Ken Time for Tennis #790 ($340) -16.6 overall in the last update, boasted a +9.0 increase this update, now down -9.3 overall.  Other noteworthy positive comps came from:  Dressed Box Ken Prince #0772 ($448) +8.2/-8.2 overall, Dressed Box Ken Casuals #782 ($376) +1.6/+0.3 overall and Dressed Box Ken Holland #0777 ($395) +2.1/-7.1 overall.

MOD Era Ken®  

Mod Era Ken® dolls as a group did better with this update with only slight decreases and a few larger increases.  Any negative changes in values really won't damage their long-term investment potential, because they proved to be slight.  The most positive activity in the category came from Malibu Ken® dolls.  Leading the pack is the HTF foreign edition Funtime Ken (E) ($92), which I finally got to add to my collection this year! It posted an increase of +21.2 and is +76.9 overall.  Another strong contender is 1974's  Malibu Ken Pink Box ($81) which posted another positive increase of +9.2/+62.7 overall.  The most expensive and HTF Malibu Ken at $106, The Sun Set Malibu Ken (Bubble on Orange Card) climbed in value +16.5 and +36.5 overall.  The Sun Set Malibu Ken (Bubble on Goldenrod Card) at $90 gained as well at +11.1/+11.1 overall.  The Sun Set Malibu Ken White Box at $81 was unchanged at +3.4 overall.  The only doll to decrease was The Sun Set Malibu Ken (Box with flap) at $79, -1.3/+3.9 overall.

I predicted that relatively easier versions to obtain would start to increase in value.  The "standout" example had to be Gold Medal Skier Ken, with a value climbing to $112.  This was an increase of +38.3 and +51.9 overall, placing it in third place with the highest increase overall in this category.  But still in second place, the  HTF foreign edition Party Time Ken ($76) competed stronger with a +7.0 this update, and +72.7 overall.  My "pick" in this category, Free Moving Ken ($90) didn't fare as well as I predicted with a -5.5 decrease, bringing it's +49.2 overall increase from the last update to a +41.0 this update.  Another plentiful Mod Era doll, Mod Hair Ken ($129) has the most unstable record, and following this version is like riding on a roller coaster.  +23.2 overall two years ago, early 2002 showed this version slipping to +12.1 increase and mid 2002 down to +1.0 overall.  With a +28.5 increase this update, this doll is now at +29.8 overall, beating it's own record from two years ago.  It had the best improvement in the Mod Era Ken® category!  The VHTF Mod Hair Ken (Montgomery Ward's) ($204) dipped in value with a -11.3 decrease, +37.8 overall.  In the Mod Era Ken® category, it's the second most expensive version to own. Still showing strong leadership (and in first place with the best overall secondary market value increase), New Good Lookin' Ken ($152) was up +4.2, glowing with a whopping +153.7 overall.  

As a group, Talking Ken dolls remained steady.  First version Talking Ken ($150) posted a -2.6 decrease and is now posting a -6.3 overall.  Talking Ken Spanish (New Good Lookin') Orange/Aqua Outfit ($144) also posted a decrease -4.0/+5.9 overall. Two versions showed positive activity.  New Good Lookin' Talking Ken ($133) rebounded with a +9.9 and is now +33.0 overall.  Talking Busy Ken ($210) helped level it's overall -5.4 decrease in the last update +10.5 this update and is now +4.6 overall.  In the Mod Era Ken® category, it is the most expensive version to own.

I'm "splitting hairs" this update on the The Now Look Ken.  It is listed in the Value graph with the shorter and longer haired versions separated since the values are different for each version.  The first version available with shorter hair at $82, is less valuable than the more desirable one with longer hair at $101.  I had been tracking the value of the longer haired version.  It showed a decrease of -14.4 this update with a +24.7 increase overall, which was disappointing because it was showing promise as my "hot pick" with steady increases in previous updates.  Negative activity came from  Live Action Ken ($120) and Live Action Ken on Stage ($165) which were -9.1/-2.0 and -6.3/-2.8 respectively, both showing slight decreases again with this update.  After posting decreases for both Walk Lively Ken ($148) and The Sports Set Sun Valley Ken ($92) in the last update (-12.7/-6.7 and -6.6/-2.2 respectively) these versions rebounded with a positive +2.8/-4.1 and +4.5/+2.2 respectively.

Collectibles  

Ken® dolls available in the Collectibles line once again provided a unstable and unpredictable market, mirroring Barbie® dolls.  I addressed the issue in the last update of recent Barbie® Collectibles™ dolls not retaining value as Mattel continued to supply outlet stores with surplus; which in turn is being sold at a discounted price.  While solo versions of Ken® dolls were not involved, this practice seemed to damage Barbie® Collectibles™ Ken®/Barbie® doll gift set values.  I predicted that this category would gain strength from the announced versions of Ken® dolls coming in the 2003 line (1 Modern Circle™ Ken® and Fashion Insider Ken Doll Giftset).  Only original retail values for both of these versions are available now.  By the next update we will see if these two dolls will give this category the boost it needs! Even though it is pretty obvious that this category is in a "downward spiral", I'm optimistic that this category can only improve and gain back value.  The one bright spot is Coca-Cola Ken, which was released as a CE and never available in stores (only online from Mattel and/or Canadian doll dealers).  It is now pretty clear that this doll was probably a LE, not a CE with much lower production units (sources say 7,000 units).  The history of secondary prices soared again for this sold-out version.  Secondary prices were well above $100 for this doll in the months of January and February 2002 (+14.8 and +16.9 overall).  In the last update, Coca-Cola Ken® ending at $112.50, +35.5 and +58.5 overall.  Now valued at $174, Coca-Cola Ken increased +54.7 and is +145.1 when compared to the original price of $71.  Coca-Cola Ken is already making history as one of the most sought after versions to have for collectors who don't own it, and the jewel for collectors who do.  What is troubling in this category is that newer and older versions continue to decrease in value across the board.  40th Anniversary Ken ($30) -6.3/-25.0 this update after a -17.4/-20.0 last update and even though 40th Anniversary Ken AA ($31) increased +10.7, it is still -22.5 overall, somewhat improving on it last performance of -28.2/-30.0 last time.  (This following a  -3.1 and -2.5 decrease respectively last time).  Cumulatively, 30th Anniversary Ken took the biggest dive in this category for the fifth straight update and was down again ending at $82, -6.8 and now -60.3 overall (following in a -32.8 and -57.4 overall showing last time), winning (or should we say losing) another showing in the top decrease column against all other Ken® doll versions.  I'm looking on the bright side for this version, and still hoping that interest in the Silkstone™ Ken® doll should draw attention to this doll since sources say that the body mold used is the same.  Once the pinnacle of respect, the Harley Davidson Ken line has once again fared badly on the secondary market with this update.  Harley Davidson Ken ($57) was down even further for the third time -14.3 and -46.9 overall following a -31.6/-38 last time.  Harley Davidson Ken (Second Edition) ($50) also decreased again ending -6.6 and -30.8 overall following a -24.5/-25.9 last time.  But the real surprise came from the sharp decrease in value from the Hollywood Legends Wizard of Oz series Ken dolls.  Once highly coveted (and expensive) Hollywood Legends Ken as the Cowardly Lion has gone from a high of $156 to $104, a -33.3 decrease.  Hollywood Legends Ken as the Tin Man, now $40, is down -47.4 to a high of $76 and Hollywood Legends Ken as the Scarecrow, which did the worse of the three is now valued at $43, which is a dramatic decrease of -58.7, from it's high of $104.  The other two dolls in this line, Hollywood Legends Ken as Rhett Butler -28.3 overall and Hollywood Legends Ken as Professor Henry Higgins -41.5 overall, aren't weathering the storm any better.

That's it for this update! Happy Ken® collecting!

$5

My "HOT TIPS" and "NOT PICKS" for the next six months, sorted by category.